Finding Ways For Evan Longoria To Fail

With no clear word from the front office yet, speculation is rising in Tampa that the Rays will send hot-crap prospect 3B Evan Longoria (no relation) to AAA to begin the season.


Most observers, including some of Longoria's teammates, have concluded that the reason will be to delay Longoria's service time clock thus allowing the team to control his rights for an additional year. One could certainly argue that this is a smart move for a small market team. However, Andrew Friedman, executive vice president of baseball operations, specifically denied that economics would be a factor in the decision.

So, what's left?

According to club officials, spring training was for evaluating Longoria on all kinds of things.

Friedman and manager Joe Maddon say they'll consider a series of factors beyond actual performance and results, everything from how Longoria carries himself and interacts in the clubhouse; his thought process at the plate and how he makes adjustments during, and between, at-bats; his preparation, work ethic and knowledge of the game; how he plays defense and does the "little" things. And they'll try to gauge other things more subjective such as how he'd handle the frustrations of what would be his first extended slump as a pro.

By all accounts, Longoria has passed the spring tests with flying colors. He's delivered on the tangibles and the intangibles. Coaches have raved, teammates have raved. The only thing he failed to do, it would appear, is fail.

Let's look at that last line again.

And they'll try to gauge other things more subjective such as how he'd handle the frustrations of what would be his first extended slump as a pro.

So, isn't this what it really comes down to? They want to see him fail, because they want to see how he reacts to failure. It's difficult, the story goes, for a hot-crap player to experience failure for the first time at the major league level. I have no idea if there's anything to this, but it has a certain logic and is often offered as a reason why, for example, Brandon Phillips' development curve got skewed.

The flip side of the argument is that a player yet to fail at any level is highly unlikely to fail on a return trip to the International League.

Or, as Cork Gaines puts it:

This is not the first time that the team has stated their concern over the fact that Longoria has yet to experience a slump as a professional.

If this is the biggest concern the Rays have with Longoria, then they have no concerns. "He has never slumped" is not a reason to keep somebody in the minors. "He can't handle curveballs" or "He smokes too much weed" are reasons to keep somebody in the minors. "He is too good" is not.

I think Rays officials are going about this all wrong; if they really want to give Longoria a taste of failure, there must be hundreds of ways.

Here's a few:

1. Make him buy ice cream for spring training teammates and coaches using only spare change found in dirty laundry carts of visitors' clubhouse

2. Eat 100 hot dogs in 5 minutes

3. Resolve nuclear contest between India and Pakistan

4. Compete on American Gladiators

5. Compete on Project Runway

6. Prove that methamphetamine is not addictive

7. Adapt The Wire into Broadway musical

8. Adapt The Eliot Spitzer Story into Disney animated feature

9. Develop perpetual motion machine

10. Foot race with B.J. Upton

11. Crazy race with Elijah Dukes

Just pick one and let's get this over with.

Corey Patterson signs, a.k.a. The Year of Living Resurgently - Take Two?

I expected 28-year-old free agent CF Corey Patterson to find a home - most likely on a short deal - quicker than this. Not that he's been any great shakes with the bat, but Corey still offers a very solid glove at a premium defensive position. And, in the shadow of 2007, in which Josh Hamilton, Carlos Pena and Rick Ankiel all forged remarkable comeback/breakthroughs out of the ashes of nearly-ruined careers - let's call it The Year of Living Resurgently - it's reasonable for major league teams to make a small gamble on a once-promising player.

Still, it surprises me to find him signing with the Reds. I want to like this move but it brings into conflict two of my most cherished notions about putting a baseball team together: 1) Thou shalt take inexpensive chances on players with talent and 2) Thou shalt not block prospects with veteran players just because of "experience."

The Patterson signing puts him in direct competition with Jay Bruce for the CF slot, as LF and RF are presumably locked down for Dunn and Griffey. Bruce is the consensus top prospect in baseball, and clearly ready for the major leagues. My biggest fear here is the Reds send Bruce down to AAA because 'he hasn't failed yet' - this was mentioned publicly in the Reds' deliberations over Homer Bailey last year.

[In addition, members of the Rays' front office were recently quoted saying the same thing about Evan Longoria. This seems to be a fervent belief among front offices - that it can be very dangerous for a talented player to face adversity for the first time at the major league level. I'm skeptical, but trying to remain open-minded.]

To be fair, the Reds may just view Patterson as a fourth outfielder, a motivational ploy for Bruce to perform in Spring Training, or an insurance policy in the event Bruce does struggle. The dream scenario for Cincy is probably that Bruce starts out as the most-days CF and Patterson shows enough in limited at-bats where he creates some value to the team either in production or in trade. Certainly the minor league nature of Patterson's deal means there's little financial downside to the Reds if Bruce is truly ready.

So what do the Reds have in Patterson? I suspect Dusty Baker looks at him and sees the "true" leadoff hitter he covets, i.e. a slap singles hitter with speed. Never mind that Patterson won't take a walk to save his life. He has some power and some speed, but he has no patience, so pitchers never throw him anything to hit. Since he's 28 it's probably a poor bet that will change.

Dusty said yesterday, in a burst of spring optimism,

The main thing is he's still young. What's Corey? 28 years old? To me, he hasn't scratched the surface as to what he can do.

That's a nice sentiment, but 28 is pretty far along in the life of professional baseball player. There's a lot of evidence as to what he is and what he isn't.

The thing he gives you is pretty good CF defense, which should not be dismissed. I could see him on a one-year deal with a team that needs OF defense and maybe has a CF prospect who needs one more year in the minors. The team that made sense to me was Atlanta, who has Jordan Schafer making his way through the minors, doing a very nice Grady Sizemore impression with plus defense in CF and a nice power/speed combo on offense. The Braves probably have enough offense to trade a little bat for glove. Patterson's also an Atlanta native, so I thought it made tons of sense on a one year deal, but the Braves seem to believe in Mark Kotsay, which seems a little like wish-casting to me.

The Padres might have considered him, but they also preferred an older, more-injury prone player in Jim Edmonds, who is - see if you can guess - already hurt this spring.

Looking back on Patterson's career for just a second:

2003 Age 23 329 AB 298/329/511 13 HR, 16 SB

2004 Age 24 631 AB 266/320/452 24 HR, 32 SB

2005 Age 25 451 AB 215/254/328 13 HR, 15 SB

For the past few years, he's become a pretty one-dimensional speed player, with key counting stats of 8 HR and 37 SB last year for Baltimore.

Come to think of it, Dusty's probably remembering that 2004 season since he was Patterson's skipper in Chicago that year. I look at that line - warning: BASELESS SPECULATION ™ ahead - and guess that he saw a lot of pitches to hit in 2004 but by the next year pitchers knew he would chase the ball out of the strike zone. I seem to remember his at-bats in 2005 were cut back due to being sent down to AAA rather than injury; a quick check of Baseball Reference confirms he played 24 games for Iowa in '05. In short, we have a guy with a lot of tools who never learned how to lay off the cheese.

It would seem like a correctible flaw just to lay off pitches out of the zone. Of course that's easy for me to say typing this in my Mom's basement.

It's certainly been a long way down for Patterson from the lofty heights of can't miss prospect status. He was Baseball America's #3 prospect in all of baseball in 2000 and #2 in 2001. But a year ago you could have said similar things about Hamilton, Ankiel and Pena. That's the great thing about spring. There's always hope.

Blue Jays' prospect Travis Snider; a.k.a. The Story of How Brian Giles Used to Be Really, Really Good

Ah, prospect-watching. Sometimes the fun is in dreaming about what might be; sometimes it's about remembering what was.

Over the weekend it was announced (or revealed? how do these things come out?) that hot-crap Blue Jays' OF prospect Travis Snider would skip the high-A Florida State League this season and go straight to AA Vermont. Despite being only 20, Snider is on track to play for the Blue Jays next year.

UPDATE (3/7): I wish I could remember where I saw this item because it's only now being talked about by the team.

Blue Jays outfielder Travis Snider will likely skip high Class A Dunedin and head right to Double-A New Hampshire to start the season.

"It’s almost completely decided that he’s going there" said Blue Jays farm director Dick Scott.

Snider was taken 14th overall in the first round of the 2006 draft out of high school in Washington state. He was considered by some to be the best high school hitter in the draft, but fell due to concerns about his size (5-11, 245). Those concerns appear misplaced. Though he probably should avoid bacon cheeseburgers gaining much additional weight, his size is to some degree mitigated by his athleticism; he was a running back in high school. Like fellow big boy Prince Fielder, Snider can flat rake.

After hitting an impressive 313/375/525 as a teenager in the most pitcher-friendly of all the minor circuits, the low A Midwest League, Snider is considered one of the best prospects in baseball, ranked #7 by ESPN's Keith Law ($), #7 by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, and #11 by Baseball America.

Okay, full disclosure: I'm more than just a disinterested fan; I have Snider in a lifetime keeper league. His was one of the first write-ups I flipped to when I recently put my hands on the Baseball Prospectus Annual for 2008. I won't risk copyright infringement other than to say they think highly of Snider and compared his ceiling to 'peak Brian Giles.' That just about curdled my milk. I can't remember the last time I thought of Giles as any good.

I checked out Baseball Reference and was astonished to find just how good 'peak Brian Giles' was - observe:

1999 Age 28 315/418/614 39 HR 115 RBI OPS+ 156

2000 Age 29 315/432/594 35 HR 123 RBI OPS+ 157

2001 Age 30 309/404/590 37 HR 95 RBI OPS+ 150

2002 Age 31 298/450/622 38 HR 103 RBI OPS+ 177

That's what some of my more up-market peers might call down-ballot MVP seasons.

His peak included some pretty stellar seasons, all accomplished more or less anonymously amidst the chronic losing in Pittsburgh: the Buccos averaged ~91 losses a year during Giles' four year peak, including a round 62-100 in 2001.

In 2003, Giles was dealt to San Diego. He managed OPS+ of 145, 128 and 146 in his age 32, 33, and 34 seasons. He's in full decline phase now.

Interestingly, his age 28 season was the first one where he exceeded 500 AB. He must have been a real late bloomer, because he was still rookie-eligible at 26 in 1997.

Snider is off to a much quicker start in his career, and it looks like he'll make his major league debut at 21 or possibly sooner. One can hope that he'll have a longer productive peak than Giles, but perhaps the Giles comp serves as a reminder that while the bigger bodies can shine just as brightly, they may not shine for as long. [In case you're wondering why the Phillies are reluctant to ink Ryan Howard to a long-term deal....]

Still, lesson learned. Peak Brian Giles is a pretty high bar.

UPDATE (3/4): Here's footage of Travis Snider in which he does a nice Brian Giles impression.