Still Watching

Boy, Jeff Keppinger is making me look pretty good. He's also making the Kansas City Royals look pretty foolish.

Let's have some fun with small sample sizes, shall we?


Data set 1: Jeff Keppinger, starting SS, Cincinnnati Reds
2008 stats: 47 at bats, .340/.396/.532, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB, 7 R


Data set 2: Tony Pena, starting SS, Kansas City Royals
2008 stats: 27 at bats, .037/.071/.037, 1 hit, 2 RBI (he's clutch!), 1 SB, 0 R



Transaction involving these two ballclubs: Royals trade Keppinger to Reds on January 10, 2007 for Russ Haltiwanger


I was going to post Russ Haltiwanger's minor league numbers this year, but frankly I'm kind of tired of piling on Russ Haltiwanger. Though I do enjoy saying his name. Haltiwanger.

What was I talking about again?

Oh, yeah. Tony Pena. He's not good.



Number one in your program, number forty-seven in your heart. Tony Pena.

Who I'm Watching: Jeff Keppinger

It happens sometimes in the MLB, a guy does everything he can to earn an everyday job but never gets the opportunity. Case in point, Jeff Keppinger.

He's not a star in the making, but he is a solid contact hitter who can play a decent shortstop or second base. Keppinger has hit for average at every level of professional ball and has a career minor league line of .321/.374/.420 over parts of 6 seasons and more than 2100 at bats.



Keppinger seems to be a classic example of a player who is knocked for what he isn't rather than celebrated for what he is. Though he doesn't have much power, and walks infrequently, he has tremendous bat control and rarely strikes out. He can put the bat on the ball in just about any situation, and that ability has translated well in limited opportunities in the majors. In fact, entering 2008, his major league career line is .313/.371/.448 over parts of 4 seasons and about 430 at bats.

At the same time, he's 28 and has been traded three times.

What gives?

Keppinger was a fourth round pick by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2001 out of the University of Georgia. He wasn't a particularly sexy pick though he did homer twice off Mark Prior in one game of the 2001 College World Series.

Keppinger signed in August and made his pro debut in 2002 for Hickory in the Class A South Atlantic League. He put up a triple slash line of .276/.341/.404 and struck out just 33 times in 478 at bats. He made modest gains in 2002 for Lynchburg in the Advanced Class A Carolina League, but jumped his batting average up to .325.

He began the 2004 season in AA, playing for Altoona in the Eastern League. On July 30, he was traded with Kris Benson to the Mets for Jose Bautista, Ty Wigginton, and Matt Peterson. He was assigned to the Mets' AA team in the Eastern League but was promoted to AAA after just 14 games. He was promoted again to the Major League team after just six games at AAA, and posted a respectable line of .284/.317/.379 over 118 at-bats. His combined minor league line for 2004 was a sterling .339/.397/.417.

After the trade and the August call-up, Keppinger was on the prospect map, weighing in as the #12 prospect in the Mets' system according to the 2005 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. Still, he was given little chance to unseat Kaz Matsui at 2B. BA reported that the Mets wanted to try Keppinger at SS and 3B in spring training to see if he could help the team in a utility role. Whatever they were hoping to see didn't materialize, and Keppinger didn't play a major league game in 2005.

He did put up yet another respectable minor league line, hitting .337/.377/.455 for AAA Norfolk, considered to be a tough hitting environment. Unfortunately his season was over in mid-June when he was taken out on a hard slide trying to turn a double play and broke his kneecap. It was a very costly injury for Keppinger as both Kaz Matsui and his backup Miguel Cairo went out with injuries. Keppinger would have been promoted if healthy but the Mets turned instead to Anderson Hernandez, who acquitted himself well and in the process passed Keppinger in the organizational depth charts.

He returned to AAA in 2006 but was traded to Kansas City on July 19 for Ruben Gotay. Perhaps pressing, and understandably so, he hit just .267 in 60 at-bats for the Royals (though he hit .354 in 32 games for the Royals' AAA team). Presumably convinced they had a quad-A lifer on their hands, the Royals unloaded Keppinger to the Reds on January 10, 2007 for A-ball pitcher Russ Haltiwanger.

I mean no disrespect to Russ or any member of the Haltiwanger family, but I follow prospects pretty closely and I have never heard of Russ Haltiwanger. I'd rather have Jeff Keppinger and I'm fairly sure the Royals would, too. Here's a nice reminder that 60 at-bats isn't enough to properly evaluate a player.

Moving to a new organization, Keppinger once again started the season in the minors in 2007, hitting .367/.418/.471 for an 889 OPS over 240 at bats at AAA Louisville. Granted, at 27 he was old for the level but he had long since earned the chance to show what he could do over a few hundred at bats at the MLB level.

He got that opportunity when Alex Gonzalez was injured, and made the most of it, hitting .332/.400/.477 in 241 at-bats, with 5 HR and just 12 strikeouts against 24 walks.

Just to repeat: that's a batting average of .332. In the major leagues. Had he garnered enough at-bats to qualify, he would have tied for third in the National League batting race with Chase Utley, Edgar Renteria and Hanley Ramirez.

The performance is in the books, but the question remains: was it enough to secure a full-time gig? The Baseball Prospect 2008 annual notes the precarious situation: "Given Dusty Baker's affinity for the Neifis of the world, there's reason to worry that the label 'offensive shortstop' will doom Keppinger in his new manager's eyes."

Keppinger started the 2008 season as the Reds' starting SS, but no one can say right now what will happen when Alex Gonzalez returns to health. It sure looks like Keppinger wants to make the decision as difficult as possible on the Reds, as he's jumped out to a scorching start, with 2 HR, 1 SB and a .435 average in his first 6 games. A sample size that small shouldn't mean much, but you never know with Dusty Baker.

Jeff Keppinger is already 28 this year so he may be as good as he's going to be. That shouldn't doom him to the bench, but it may. Only one thing is certain and that is that Jeff Keppinger will hit, if given the chance.

Corey Patterson signs, a.k.a. The Year of Living Resurgently - Take Two?

I expected 28-year-old free agent CF Corey Patterson to find a home - most likely on a short deal - quicker than this. Not that he's been any great shakes with the bat, but Corey still offers a very solid glove at a premium defensive position. And, in the shadow of 2007, in which Josh Hamilton, Carlos Pena and Rick Ankiel all forged remarkable comeback/breakthroughs out of the ashes of nearly-ruined careers - let's call it The Year of Living Resurgently - it's reasonable for major league teams to make a small gamble on a once-promising player.

Still, it surprises me to find him signing with the Reds. I want to like this move but it brings into conflict two of my most cherished notions about putting a baseball team together: 1) Thou shalt take inexpensive chances on players with talent and 2) Thou shalt not block prospects with veteran players just because of "experience."

The Patterson signing puts him in direct competition with Jay Bruce for the CF slot, as LF and RF are presumably locked down for Dunn and Griffey. Bruce is the consensus top prospect in baseball, and clearly ready for the major leagues. My biggest fear here is the Reds send Bruce down to AAA because 'he hasn't failed yet' - this was mentioned publicly in the Reds' deliberations over Homer Bailey last year.

[In addition, members of the Rays' front office were recently quoted saying the same thing about Evan Longoria. This seems to be a fervent belief among front offices - that it can be very dangerous for a talented player to face adversity for the first time at the major league level. I'm skeptical, but trying to remain open-minded.]

To be fair, the Reds may just view Patterson as a fourth outfielder, a motivational ploy for Bruce to perform in Spring Training, or an insurance policy in the event Bruce does struggle. The dream scenario for Cincy is probably that Bruce starts out as the most-days CF and Patterson shows enough in limited at-bats where he creates some value to the team either in production or in trade. Certainly the minor league nature of Patterson's deal means there's little financial downside to the Reds if Bruce is truly ready.

So what do the Reds have in Patterson? I suspect Dusty Baker looks at him and sees the "true" leadoff hitter he covets, i.e. a slap singles hitter with speed. Never mind that Patterson won't take a walk to save his life. He has some power and some speed, but he has no patience, so pitchers never throw him anything to hit. Since he's 28 it's probably a poor bet that will change.

Dusty said yesterday, in a burst of spring optimism,

The main thing is he's still young. What's Corey? 28 years old? To me, he hasn't scratched the surface as to what he can do.

That's a nice sentiment, but 28 is pretty far along in the life of professional baseball player. There's a lot of evidence as to what he is and what he isn't.

The thing he gives you is pretty good CF defense, which should not be dismissed. I could see him on a one-year deal with a team that needs OF defense and maybe has a CF prospect who needs one more year in the minors. The team that made sense to me was Atlanta, who has Jordan Schafer making his way through the minors, doing a very nice Grady Sizemore impression with plus defense in CF and a nice power/speed combo on offense. The Braves probably have enough offense to trade a little bat for glove. Patterson's also an Atlanta native, so I thought it made tons of sense on a one year deal, but the Braves seem to believe in Mark Kotsay, which seems a little like wish-casting to me.

The Padres might have considered him, but they also preferred an older, more-injury prone player in Jim Edmonds, who is - see if you can guess - already hurt this spring.

Looking back on Patterson's career for just a second:

2003 Age 23 329 AB 298/329/511 13 HR, 16 SB

2004 Age 24 631 AB 266/320/452 24 HR, 32 SB

2005 Age 25 451 AB 215/254/328 13 HR, 15 SB

For the past few years, he's become a pretty one-dimensional speed player, with key counting stats of 8 HR and 37 SB last year for Baltimore.

Come to think of it, Dusty's probably remembering that 2004 season since he was Patterson's skipper in Chicago that year. I look at that line - warning: BASELESS SPECULATION ™ ahead - and guess that he saw a lot of pitches to hit in 2004 but by the next year pitchers knew he would chase the ball out of the strike zone. I seem to remember his at-bats in 2005 were cut back due to being sent down to AAA rather than injury; a quick check of Baseball Reference confirms he played 24 games for Iowa in '05. In short, we have a guy with a lot of tools who never learned how to lay off the cheese.

It would seem like a correctible flaw just to lay off pitches out of the zone. Of course that's easy for me to say typing this in my Mom's basement.

It's certainly been a long way down for Patterson from the lofty heights of can't miss prospect status. He was Baseball America's #3 prospect in all of baseball in 2000 and #2 in 2001. But a year ago you could have said similar things about Hamilton, Ankiel and Pena. That's the great thing about spring. There's always hope.