Sunday, April 6, 2008

Who I'm Watching: Jeff Keppinger

It happens sometimes in the MLB, a guy does everything he can to earn an everyday job but never gets the opportunity. Case in point, Jeff Keppinger.

He's not a star in the making, but he is a solid contact hitter who can play a decent shortstop or second base. Keppinger has hit for average at every level of professional ball and has a career minor league line of .321/.374/.420 over parts of 6 seasons and more than 2100 at bats.



Keppinger seems to be a classic example of a player who is knocked for what he isn't rather than celebrated for what he is. Though he doesn't have much power, and walks infrequently, he has tremendous bat control and rarely strikes out. He can put the bat on the ball in just about any situation, and that ability has translated well in limited opportunities in the majors. In fact, entering 2008, his major league career line is .313/.371/.448 over parts of 4 seasons and about 430 at bats.

At the same time, he's 28 and has been traded three times.

What gives?

Keppinger was a fourth round pick by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2001 out of the University of Georgia. He wasn't a particularly sexy pick though he did homer twice off Mark Prior in one game of the 2001 College World Series.

Keppinger signed in August and made his pro debut in 2002 for Hickory in the Class A South Atlantic League. He put up a triple slash line of .276/.341/.404 and struck out just 33 times in 478 at bats. He made modest gains in 2002 for Lynchburg in the Advanced Class A Carolina League, but jumped his batting average up to .325.

He began the 2004 season in AA, playing for Altoona in the Eastern League. On July 30, he was traded with Kris Benson to the Mets for Jose Bautista, Ty Wigginton, and Matt Peterson. He was assigned to the Mets' AA team in the Eastern League but was promoted to AAA after just 14 games. He was promoted again to the Major League team after just six games at AAA, and posted a respectable line of .284/.317/.379 over 118 at-bats. His combined minor league line for 2004 was a sterling .339/.397/.417.

After the trade and the August call-up, Keppinger was on the prospect map, weighing in as the #12 prospect in the Mets' system according to the 2005 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. Still, he was given little chance to unseat Kaz Matsui at 2B. BA reported that the Mets wanted to try Keppinger at SS and 3B in spring training to see if he could help the team in a utility role. Whatever they were hoping to see didn't materialize, and Keppinger didn't play a major league game in 2005.

He did put up yet another respectable minor league line, hitting .337/.377/.455 for AAA Norfolk, considered to be a tough hitting environment. Unfortunately his season was over in mid-June when he was taken out on a hard slide trying to turn a double play and broke his kneecap. It was a very costly injury for Keppinger as both Kaz Matsui and his backup Miguel Cairo went out with injuries. Keppinger would have been promoted if healthy but the Mets turned instead to Anderson Hernandez, who acquitted himself well and in the process passed Keppinger in the organizational depth charts.

He returned to AAA in 2006 but was traded to Kansas City on July 19 for Ruben Gotay. Perhaps pressing, and understandably so, he hit just .267 in 60 at-bats for the Royals (though he hit .354 in 32 games for the Royals' AAA team). Presumably convinced they had a quad-A lifer on their hands, the Royals unloaded Keppinger to the Reds on January 10, 2007 for A-ball pitcher Russ Haltiwanger.

I mean no disrespect to Russ or any member of the Haltiwanger family, but I follow prospects pretty closely and I have never heard of Russ Haltiwanger. I'd rather have Jeff Keppinger and I'm fairly sure the Royals would, too. Here's a nice reminder that 60 at-bats isn't enough to properly evaluate a player.

Moving to a new organization, Keppinger once again started the season in the minors in 2007, hitting .367/.418/.471 for an 889 OPS over 240 at bats at AAA Louisville. Granted, at 27 he was old for the level but he had long since earned the chance to show what he could do over a few hundred at bats at the MLB level.

He got that opportunity when Alex Gonzalez was injured, and made the most of it, hitting .332/.400/.477 in 241 at-bats, with 5 HR and just 12 strikeouts against 24 walks.

Just to repeat: that's a batting average of .332. In the major leagues. Had he garnered enough at-bats to qualify, he would have tied for third in the National League batting race with Chase Utley, Edgar Renteria and Hanley Ramirez.

The performance is in the books, but the question remains: was it enough to secure a full-time gig? The Baseball Prospect 2008 annual notes the precarious situation: "Given Dusty Baker's affinity for the Neifis of the world, there's reason to worry that the label 'offensive shortstop' will doom Keppinger in his new manager's eyes."

Keppinger started the 2008 season as the Reds' starting SS, but no one can say right now what will happen when Alex Gonzalez returns to health. It sure looks like Keppinger wants to make the decision as difficult as possible on the Reds, as he's jumped out to a scorching start, with 2 HR, 1 SB and a .435 average in his first 6 games. A sample size that small shouldn't mean much, but you never know with Dusty Baker.

Jeff Keppinger is already 28 this year so he may be as good as he's going to be. That shouldn't doom him to the bench, but it may. Only one thing is certain and that is that Jeff Keppinger will hit, if given the chance.

What Do Jimmy Sheckard and Justin Upton Have In Common?

Before going 0-4 today, Justin Upton had homered in 3 straight games, making him just the 4th 20-year-old ever to accomplish the feat.



The complete list:

Jimmy Sheckard, 1898, Brooklyn

Mel Ott, 1929, New York Giants

Willie Mays, 1951, New York Giants

Justin Upton, 2008, Arizona



Mel Ott did it twice. Upton will be 20 until late August.

Steak at Stake, Chapter 2

Steak update: no change.

Check out D-Train's line from yesterday's game: 5 IP, 1 H, 7 BB, 3 ER. No decision.

7 walks? Really?

He only went 5, but this might be in the running for the worst 1-hitter of all time.

Overheard on Extra Innings: Impossible to Rush a Prospect

On this afternoon's FSN Ohio broadcast of the Reds-Phillies game, George Grande mentioned an FSN interview with Mario Soto, a former Reds' hurler who now helps the team as an informal pitching coach.

In the interview, according to Grande, Soto said that Edinson Volquez was rushed to the major leagues three years ago in the Texas system, and that it was a disservice to him.

To which Chris Welsh replied:

"You know, George. I'm not so sure if I buy into that argument. You know, it seems like people want to make excuses later on as to why a player didn't fulfill his potential by saying we rushed him along. I hear that about Corey Patterson; I hear that about a lot of other players. You don't hear that about Ken Griffey, Jr., when he broke in at age 19."

Um, okay.

Couple things, though.

One, Ken Griffey, Jr. is a second-generation major leaguer, a precocious natural talent who was selected #1 overall in the 1987 MLB draft, one of the greatest players of all-time and a sure first-ballot Hall of Famer despite losing parts of each of the last eight seasons to injury. Edinson Volquez is...not any of those things. Nor is Corey Patterson.

Two....well, do I really need a two?

If you're using Ken Griffey, Jr., as your player development template, you're probably going to be disappointed by the progress of every player in your system for the next fifty years.

Now that's a disservice.

Saturday, April 5, 2008

Overheard on Extra Innings: Johan Who?

During the Royals-Twins game last night, the Kansas City broadcast crew noted that the trade of Johan Santana to the Mets wasn't as big a windfall for Royals' batters as you might think.

Despite being division rivals, the Royals faced Santana only once in 2007. On the other hand, they faced Boof Bonser six times.

Six times Boof.

That's random.


Overheard on Extra Innings: Morgan Ensberg is a Tool

On last night's YES broadcast, in the later innings of a 13-4 drubbing of the Yanks at the hands of the Rays, Michael Kay and Kenny Singleton were chuckling over a story about Morgan Ensberg.

Ensberg, new to the New York area, was apparently frustrated by getting a traffic citation. He wrote the following on a white board in the Yankees' clubhouse:

Contract with Yankees: $1.75 million

Cost of my car: $75,000

Getting a ticket for talking on a cell phone: Priceless




I'm still scratching my head as to why they would tell this story. Theoretically, this is the "color commentary" side of the broadcast and they're trying to help us get to know the player. Kenny thought it was nice that Ensberg had "a sense of humor about it".

I do feel like I know Morgan Ensberg a bit better today than I did yesterday and here is what I know: he is a tool.

But that's not too surprising - what, a professional athlete with an exaggerated sense of privilege and entitlement? I'm shocked - shocked! What's more interesting is that perhaps Kay and Singleton think he's a tool too and wanted to throw him under the bus. All in the name of helping us to get to know the player.

Does that count as a public service announcement?