What I'm Reading: A Little Profundity In Between the Profanity

One of the baseball blogs I read daily is Drunk Jays Fans, which is a reliably solid source of entertainment and Blue Jays info.




The excerpt here is a nice example of how they manage to be smart and profane at the same time, which is no mean feat if you think about it.

I think we've successfully driven away most of the Chicken Little types from this site by calling them retards in our comments sections, but I've got to admit, I do completely see where their frustration is coming from. I mean, it’s not like I want this site to host a community of pathetic eternal optimists, because they way the Jays are playing right now is bullshit, and it's fine to say that. Thursday's hitting performance was, again, abysmal. And yeah, there are now big time concerns about whether or not they can resuscitate the season. That's all very true.

But what kills me is when people start saying, with five fucking months to go, they're doomed! Season's over! I'm through!

I'm probably the exception here, but to me the thing about sports that don't have salary caps, like baseball or soccer, is that you're forced to appreciate the sport for what it is, and don't just live or die based on whether your team is winning or losing. If the season here goes down the shitter-- which I'm not saying it's about to-- it doesn't make it any less great to go out to the ballpark on a beautiful summer day, sneak down to some seats in the 100s and then sit in the sunshine getting stinko. Or to fire up the barbecue with the radio on in the backyard and listening to the ballgame in the simmering twilight. You know, bullshit like that. People in Cleveland got used to it for like forty years, and while I am fully aware that we deserve better than them, I really think that, if it comes to it, we should at least be able to watch this season slip quietly underwater without losing our fucking minds.

You'd think that with 26 of 30 teams staying home from the playoffs each year that fans would learn to handle losing with dignity. But that never, or at least rarely, seems to be the case.

So in the spirit of beginning small, I'm asking, here and now, in this tiny, cold and dark corner of the Interweb, that the three people who read this all resolve to "watch this season slip quietly underwater without losing our fucking minds."

Is that really so much to ask?

No offense, Cleveland.

Blue Jays' prospect Travis Snider; a.k.a. The Story of How Brian Giles Used to Be Really, Really Good

Ah, prospect-watching. Sometimes the fun is in dreaming about what might be; sometimes it's about remembering what was.

Over the weekend it was announced (or revealed? how do these things come out?) that hot-crap Blue Jays' OF prospect Travis Snider would skip the high-A Florida State League this season and go straight to AA Vermont. Despite being only 20, Snider is on track to play for the Blue Jays next year.

UPDATE (3/7): I wish I could remember where I saw this item because it's only now being talked about by the team.

Blue Jays outfielder Travis Snider will likely skip high Class A Dunedin and head right to Double-A New Hampshire to start the season.

"It’s almost completely decided that he’s going there" said Blue Jays farm director Dick Scott.

Snider was taken 14th overall in the first round of the 2006 draft out of high school in Washington state. He was considered by some to be the best high school hitter in the draft, but fell due to concerns about his size (5-11, 245). Those concerns appear misplaced. Though he probably should avoid bacon cheeseburgers gaining much additional weight, his size is to some degree mitigated by his athleticism; he was a running back in high school. Like fellow big boy Prince Fielder, Snider can flat rake.

After hitting an impressive 313/375/525 as a teenager in the most pitcher-friendly of all the minor circuits, the low A Midwest League, Snider is considered one of the best prospects in baseball, ranked #7 by ESPN's Keith Law ($), #7 by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, and #11 by Baseball America.

Okay, full disclosure: I'm more than just a disinterested fan; I have Snider in a lifetime keeper league. His was one of the first write-ups I flipped to when I recently put my hands on the Baseball Prospectus Annual for 2008. I won't risk copyright infringement other than to say they think highly of Snider and compared his ceiling to 'peak Brian Giles.' That just about curdled my milk. I can't remember the last time I thought of Giles as any good.

I checked out Baseball Reference and was astonished to find just how good 'peak Brian Giles' was - observe:

1999 Age 28 315/418/614 39 HR 115 RBI OPS+ 156

2000 Age 29 315/432/594 35 HR 123 RBI OPS+ 157

2001 Age 30 309/404/590 37 HR 95 RBI OPS+ 150

2002 Age 31 298/450/622 38 HR 103 RBI OPS+ 177

That's what some of my more up-market peers might call down-ballot MVP seasons.

His peak included some pretty stellar seasons, all accomplished more or less anonymously amidst the chronic losing in Pittsburgh: the Buccos averaged ~91 losses a year during Giles' four year peak, including a round 62-100 in 2001.

In 2003, Giles was dealt to San Diego. He managed OPS+ of 145, 128 and 146 in his age 32, 33, and 34 seasons. He's in full decline phase now.

Interestingly, his age 28 season was the first one where he exceeded 500 AB. He must have been a real late bloomer, because he was still rookie-eligible at 26 in 1997.

Snider is off to a much quicker start in his career, and it looks like he'll make his major league debut at 21 or possibly sooner. One can hope that he'll have a longer productive peak than Giles, but perhaps the Giles comp serves as a reminder that while the bigger bodies can shine just as brightly, they may not shine for as long. [In case you're wondering why the Phillies are reluctant to ink Ryan Howard to a long-term deal....]

Still, lesson learned. Peak Brian Giles is a pretty high bar.

UPDATE (3/4): Here's footage of Travis Snider in which he does a nice Brian Giles impression.